Sima Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note that while one might expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points this week, history suggests a 25 basis point cut is more likely. "Since the late 1980s... a 25 basis point cut has become the norm, with 50 basis points being the exception." Only two rate cut cycles have started by more than 25 basis points, she said: during the dotcom bubble in January 2001, and during the subprime crisis in September 2007. Both p...
Friday's PCE data was in line with expectations, which is a relief and one that the Fed would welcome, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. However, the policy path is uncertain. Further deceleration in inflation, combined with more evidence of a softening labour market, will pave the way for the first rate cut in September.